Hollywood's Last Generation

The struggle to make a living has been one constant throughout history that will not change

The future of Hollywood is bleaker than striking actors and writers imagine. As of mid-2023, we are still early in a decade that’s ushering in a creative frontier that offers opportunities for those pioneering immersive story-filled landscapes populated by AI-enhanced characters and plots.

Some will say, “Stop, right there! That’s what scares us.”

I'm not against the actors and writers struggling for a reasonable livelihood.

I am against efforts to restrict creativity in the building of fictional worlds of fictional people and situations. (The Black Mirror episode Joan is Awful presents a cautionary tale on using the likeness of real people in fiction.) I am in favor of regulating AI to stem the flow of misinformation in news, documentaries, non-fiction, and social media.

Film/tv/video are, by the very nature of the medium, technology-based industries. Film/tv/video: for brevity, we could refer to the use of this media in fictional storytelling as cinema, a nearly anachronistic term.

Cinema originated with creative tinkerers breaking new ground in storytelling with early 20th century advances in technology. Despite the rise of cinema, live stage performances in theaters thrived. The stage presents no technical mediation between player and audience. Perhaps, we’ll see a resurgence of in-person performances as people crave non-mediated experiences.

The greatest threat to Hollywood comes from outside the industry with a generational change in creativity that will span decades, similar to how cinema evolved with new techniques for storytelling.

Prefer the term video over cinema? That usage brings up a major competitor to cinema: video games. The tools for creating video games are blending into the same tools for creating various types of linear content, including cinematic experiences.

A rising generation whose imagination has been nurtured through software, like Roblox, will want to bring their visionary worlds to reality. Cinema will not cease to exist, though audiences have many more options for entertainment.

My childhood was the age of television, pre-cable, where 3 networks controlled the distribution of content broadcasted at specific times (i.e., what’s now known in the industry as linear content). My daughter’s childhood has been so different. In my childhood, the TV was always on, from early morning until we went to sleep (even when we were around the house not watching the TV, the TV set was always turned on). Now, the TV is rarely on in my house except for playing video games. My daughter and I prefer to play Ori and the Blind Forest rather than watching a show together even though we have already played that game many times. The repeatability of gameplay presents variations not found in linear content. Also, rather than watching TV, we spend time drawing and talking about stories.

Stories are illusions

A claim against AI in storytelling is that we want “real people”. But with stories, we never have real people. We have the people of our imagination. Whether novel, movie, or social media, we are presented with snippets of lives curated for their appeal even when the story presents the messy, difficult parts of life. We graft our imagination onto the imaginary presence of others.

The unreal shore of independent creators

The tools of computer graphics have advanced to the point where special effects are now in the hands of teenagers and anyone wanting to create an independent production. Whether it’s an interactive video game or a linear film, software like Unreal Engine, Unity, Godot, and Blender have lowered the barrier of entry.

AI is lately used as shorthand for troubling new technology but lifelike 3D graphics are more revolutionary. The most astounding tool, freely available when rendered in Unreal Engine, is MetaHuman by Epic Games. Watch this brief clip for a glimpse into the future of acting in film.

The actor is computer graphics powered by a real actor in a motion capture suit, as demonstrated in the next clip.

If you are an actor seeking to build a career over the next decades, learn about motion capture (mocap). An actor-entrepreneur might consider establishing a licensed library of mocap performances that can be used by filmmakers for animating different characters.

That clip showcases the state-of-the-art in mid-2023. Consider where the quality of digital human acting will be in a decade and beyond. Compare these changes to music: for decades, some musicians have created entire albums on their own with home recording equipment. The concept of a home movie is being redefined for this century. While head-mounted motion capture devices and body suits provide the best quality for motion capture, Apple devices since iPhone provide cameras suitable for capturing facial performances via the Live Link app.

Indie filmmakers have these new tools for their productions, which are the same tools used by indie game developers and larger studios. The natural distribution channel for these type of films is YouTube, where the filmmakers build a direct to consumer connection via a channel that not only showcases the cinematics but the filmmaker’s own behind-the-scenes videos. Kickstarter and Patreon complement the financing of such productions. Indie games follow similar patterns but with distribution via Steam with possible deals, for the best titles, on PlayStation and Xbox. A number of small publishers support the development and marketing of indie games.

The integration of cinematic experiences with interactive gameplay opens a new avenue of entertainment. Already, visual novels (even with static images) are one of the more profitable game genres.

The likeness rights of humans

The likeness rights of real-life actors scanned for 3D characters is an essential question. An aspect of that question, though, is that these 3D digital humans do not need creating from real-life actors or even of real people. Hand-crafted 3D portraiture is an in-demand skill that can be done with freely available software, e.g., Blender. If you’re interested, here’s a 28-hour course on the process.

That process only depicts creating a 3D character for a static image. Another step involves the complexity of rigging the 3D mesh for realistic animation. But the pipeline of tools are rapidly evolving.

An analysis by Ben Thompson at Stratechery highlights the competition for the limited time we all have that faces Hollywood:

Hollywood has to face the reality that the ability to make far more shows extends not only to studios but also to literally anyone. That reality is going to come to the fore if this strike drags on: if people don’t have new movies or shows to watch they will find far more options to fill their time than existed in 1960.

The year 1960 refers to the writers/actors strike where the concern was over the rise of television. Today, it’s streaming. I watch a lot of Netflix but I view mostly global movies and series created outside the U.S.; I simply find that those shows are more entertaining for filling my spare time.

AI and the Job of Writing

Everyone in any type of knowledge work will have to deal with the impact of AI. Jobs will change. AI can create a basic script but AI needs a good writer to guide the prompts and shape the story that comes out of AI.

I recently explored the role of editing in writing fiction on my YouTube channel with the question, “Can ChatGPT 4 edit a novel better than a human?”

The answer is yes.

But, it all depends upon the questions you ask.

Even with AI, people will continue to create. People will continue to write stories. People will act and perform. How people get paid and make a living from these endeavors will change.

The struggle to make a living has been one constant throughout history that will not change.